交易新闻

Cleveland’s Fed President Beth Hammack is crossing the wires on Monday, adding that the neutral rate for the Fed funds rate “is likely higher,” that she is hearing signs of a problem on with inflation expectations and that the question for the Fed is “how fast to make policy more restrictive.”

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD was little changed around 1.2800 on Friday and expect consolidation to persist. Intraday, they see the pair confined between 1.2790 and 1.2820, with 1.2775 as strong support. Over the next few weeks, upward momentum is rebuilding but seen too weak for a sustained break above 1.2835.

Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack is crossing the wires. She commented that interest rates need to be higher, that inflation remains “too high”, and that more economic tightness is needed.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses EUR/SEK, noting Sweden’s resilient economy, stronger-than-expected GDP and a hawkish shift at the Riksbank.

USD/JPY extends its advance on Monday, gaining 0.28% on the day to trade around 158.70 at the time of writing.

EUR/GBP remains on the defensive on Monday, sliding to a fresh year-to-date low of 0.8445 as French political and fiscal concerns keep the Euro (EUR) under sustained pressure. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8450, down 0.17% on the day.

US President Trump said on Friday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop striking each other's energy sites, and Brent fell below $103 a barrel when markets reopened.

The Pound Sterling retreats some 0.11% against the Greenback on Monday amid a scarce economic docket on both sides of the Atlantic, but geopolitics continued to drive price action amid developments in the Middle East and the prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu notes that India’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 5.54% year-on-year, with food inflation at 7.74% and core inflation at 4.2%, signalling broadening price pressures.

Commerzbank analysts highlight that Beijing’s new trade agreement with Brussels, alongside a US–China tariff framework, modestly improves China’s external backdrop. They note the PBoC’s USD/CNY fixing model points to a slightly stronger Yuan and that both USD-CNY and USD-CNH fell to 6.69 last week, as easing trade tensions reduce headwinds for China’s export sector and current account.

USD/CHF starts the week on a positive note, snapping a two-day losing streak as broad US Dollar (USD) strength and a wide interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) keep the Swiss Franc (CHF) under persistent selling pressure.

AUD/USD trades around 0.6965 on Monday, down 0.24% on the day at the time of writing, after giving up its earlier gains.

Deutsche Bank’s Robin Winkler reviews Germany’s consensus outlook, where GDP growth is seen near 1% in 2027 before sliding towards 0% by 2030 as demographics weigh on potential growth.

EUR/USD gives up its earlier gains on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) remains firmly bid across the board, while French political and fiscal uncertainty weighs on the Euro (EUR). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1178, retreating from an intraday high of 1.1217.

Rabobank strategist Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence discuss Mexico’s rates outlook after Banxico held the overnight rate at 6.50%. They note upside risks to inflation, market pricing for more than 100bp of hikes over a year, a pronounced steepening of the Mexican yield curve versus the US, and resilient foreign ownership of Mbonos and Cetes.

NZD/USD declines by 0.23% on Monday, trading around 0.5600 at the time of writing, as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD).

ING’s Chris Turner notes that the Dollar stays well supported as markets focus on solid US growth, above-target inflation and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. A potentially strong US September CPI is seen keeping rate expectations elevated. Turner highlights DXY consolidation above 102 as bullish and prefers a move towards 102.85 this week, with geopolitics offering additional support.

USD/CAD trims part of its earlier decline on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) regains ground after opening the week lower. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles to attract buyers as differing monetary policy expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) favour the Greenback.