EUR/USD could break the 1.08 level to the downside on positive US data – Commerzbank

The ADP index and the job openings today will give an indication of the labour market. The ISM for the service sector is also on the agenda. Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, analyzes how data could impact the EUR/USD pair.

Today’s data unlikely to be sufficient to push EUR/USD below 1.08 on a sustainable basis

The data publications today will cause a few pips more or less in EUR/USD. 

The market is likely to react more sceptically to negative surprises than to positive ones. As it is ‘only’ a question of 25 bps more or less the effects are likely to be moderate though; unless we receive such positive data that doubt in the Fed’s approach is hardly justified any longer. In this case, the 1.08 level will likely be broken to the downside. 

It seems unlikely to me though that today’s data will be sufficient to push EUR/USD below 1.08 on a sustainable basis. That would probably require a real whopper of a labour market report on Friday.