Canada Employment: Print-around consensus to convince the BoC to hike, suggesting upside risks for CAD – ING

Jobs figures will be released in Canada at 12:30 GMT in what will be the last major data release before next Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting. Economists at ING analyze CAD outlook.

Jobs numbers in focus ahead of BoC meeting

The consensus is expecting a robust headline number (20K), despite a marginal tick-up in unemployment to 5.3%. 

We are still inclined to think a print-around consensus should be enough to convince the BoC to hike next week, which is around 60% priced in, suggesting some upside risks for CAD (mostly in the crosses, given our view for a USD rebound in the near term). 

See – Canada Employment Preview: Banks expect to see early cracks in the labour market