EUR/CZK: CNB’s outcome may not impact the Koruna too strongly – Commerzbank

The last meeting of the Czech National Bank (CNB) this year promises a nail-biting finale. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Koruna’s outlook ahead of the decision.

A close call

For once, CNB board members, themselves, seem to be unsure about how to think about this – they are calling it a 50:50 outcome.

The actual outcome may not impact the Koruna too strongly. The FX market will probably expect a 50 bps rate cut in February 2024 if the rate is kept on hold today.

Hence, the current projection of the terminal rate will not change much, whatever the outcome this week, which means that the impact on CZK will likely be modest.