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1 May 2025

EUR/USD stays trapped in 1.13–1.14 range ahead of payrolls – Danske Bank

EUR/USD remains confined within the 1.13-1.14 range, as has been the case for most of the second half of April, Danske Bank's FX analysts report, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

USD holds ground despite first economic contraction since 2022

"Yesterday's economic data had little impact on the cross, and for now, the broader FX market appears relatively unresponsive to incoming releases. The USD remained stable as US Treasuries continued to recover and equities rebounded, even as the economy contracted for the first time since 2022."

"It will be interesting to see whether tomorrow's US jobs report can shift this dynamic. The rebound in US equities - with the S&P 500 now just 2% below pre-'Liberation Day' levels - on the back of Trump's softer tariff rhetoric may help offset the otherwise unsupportive macro data for the USD, particularly given the current positive correlation between US risk sentiment and the greenback."

"While today's focus turns to ISM manufacturing, the session may prove to be another rangebound, wait-and-see day ahead of tomorrow's payrolls report. We continue to favour buying dips in EUR/USD."

May 1, 2025

USD/JPY breaks 144 after dovish BoJ cuts forecasts – ING

USD/JPY climbed above 144 as a dovish Bank of Japan cut its growth and inflation forecasts, amplifying downside risks and sending JGB yields lower, while the broader risk environment continued to weigh on the US Dollar, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
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May 1, 2025

GBP: On the lookout for warmer European relations – ING

In the UK today, we have local council elections. These normally present an opportunity for voters to punish the ruling party. However, in today's case, the opposition Conservative party seemingly has more to lose, given it has far more councillors up for re-election.
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