Fed's Harker: Still possible the Fed can cut rates later this year
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker is embarking on a farewell tour. The Philly Fed head is set to retire at the end of June, and is taking the opportunity to deliver some hope to investors that the Fed may still yet find itself in a position to deliver rate cuts before the year is over. However, Harker attached some notable caveats to his hopeful outlook, cautioning that deteriorating economic data in the face of extreme policy swings, as well a burgeoning budget deficit from the federal government, could waylay rate cuts.
Key highlights
Amid uncertainty, it's still possible the Fed can cut rates later this year.
Uncertainty makes it very hard to divine monetary policy outlook.
I'm worried the quality of economic data is eroding.
We're increasingly flying blind when it comes to critical data.
I'm very worried about the current state of government finance.
Deficits must be reined in amid rising challenges to the US financial system.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.