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7 Jan 2015
US Jobs & FOMC to reinforce USD gains – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, notes that markets anticipate today’s ADP employment report to suggest a pick-up in hiring to 225k, and further expects this along with the FOMC minutes to be dollar supportive.
Key Quotes
“Today’s ADP employment report is perhaps too early to see any signs of this and the market is expecting a pick-up in the pace of hiring from 208k in November to 225k in December. That’s similar to the consensus for Friday’s NFP estimate which should be enough to see the unemployment rate drop to a new low of 5.7%.”
“Key for the US dollar this year will be how jobs growth shapes earnings growth. We expect a notable pick up in earnings growth this year and we’d expect the FOMC minutes this evening to mention earnings as a key element of what will shape the monetary policy outlook.”
“Given that Chair Yellen held a press conference after the December meeting, the minutes today might not be that revealing. Still, what will be revealing is how intensive the debate was on changing the communication in regard to the timing of the first rate increase.”
“We suspect that both the ADP employment report and the FOMC minutes will be dollar supportive today.”
“Dollar buying momentum remains strong and that’s unlikely to change until we get by the ECB monetary policy decision.”
“With the market currently only priced at about a 30% probability for a June rate increase in the US, the dollar is deriving support from external factors as much as internal factors.”
Key Quotes
“Today’s ADP employment report is perhaps too early to see any signs of this and the market is expecting a pick-up in the pace of hiring from 208k in November to 225k in December. That’s similar to the consensus for Friday’s NFP estimate which should be enough to see the unemployment rate drop to a new low of 5.7%.”
“Key for the US dollar this year will be how jobs growth shapes earnings growth. We expect a notable pick up in earnings growth this year and we’d expect the FOMC minutes this evening to mention earnings as a key element of what will shape the monetary policy outlook.”
“Given that Chair Yellen held a press conference after the December meeting, the minutes today might not be that revealing. Still, what will be revealing is how intensive the debate was on changing the communication in regard to the timing of the first rate increase.”
“We suspect that both the ADP employment report and the FOMC minutes will be dollar supportive today.”
“Dollar buying momentum remains strong and that’s unlikely to change until we get by the ECB monetary policy decision.”
“With the market currently only priced at about a 30% probability for a June rate increase in the US, the dollar is deriving support from external factors as much as internal factors.”