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9 Jan 2015
Key events on Friday - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, breaks down the key events for Friday, highlighting Aus retail sales and NFP.
Key Quotes
"Australia’s retail sales report often moves AUD (11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK). Oct was a clear surprise to the strong side, given the 0.4% m/m gain followed the 1.3% surge in Sep that was at least partly attributed to the new iPhone. As such, we look for a -0.2% m/m retracement that would still leave a reasonable trend intact. The median forecast however is +0.2%. Business surveys indicated patchy conditions in Nov while consumer sentiment was a touch firmer, just ahead of the Dec slump. A surprise either way will have an impact on AUD but is quite unlikely to change the RBA’s outlook, especially as this series has been a poor guide lately to the much broader household consumption measure in GDP."
"Inflation should remain very muted in China, with consensus 1.5% y/y, barely above 5 year lows (12:30pm Syd/9:30am local). Producer prices should remain firmly negative as commodity price deflation continues, consensus -3.1% y/y. Inflation has not been a barrier to PBoC easing for some time, so there is little sensitivity over the price reports. We will also see Taiwan’s Dec trade data."
"In Europe, we will see Nov trade data in Germany and the UK, along with the more market-sensitive Nov industrial production reports in both nations."
"The US employment report of course dominates the calendar. Nov non-farm payrolls were so strong (321k) that there should be little market concern if Dec prints considerably weaker than consensus of 240k. A stronger reading however should stoke renewed USD buying. Consensus is for the (separately calculated) unemployment rate to tick down from 5.8% to 5.7%. Canada also releases Dec jobs data, with total jobs expected to rebound 15k (after -11k in Nov) and unemployment to hold at 6.6%."
Key Quotes
"Australia’s retail sales report often moves AUD (11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK). Oct was a clear surprise to the strong side, given the 0.4% m/m gain followed the 1.3% surge in Sep that was at least partly attributed to the new iPhone. As such, we look for a -0.2% m/m retracement that would still leave a reasonable trend intact. The median forecast however is +0.2%. Business surveys indicated patchy conditions in Nov while consumer sentiment was a touch firmer, just ahead of the Dec slump. A surprise either way will have an impact on AUD but is quite unlikely to change the RBA’s outlook, especially as this series has been a poor guide lately to the much broader household consumption measure in GDP."
"Inflation should remain very muted in China, with consensus 1.5% y/y, barely above 5 year lows (12:30pm Syd/9:30am local). Producer prices should remain firmly negative as commodity price deflation continues, consensus -3.1% y/y. Inflation has not been a barrier to PBoC easing for some time, so there is little sensitivity over the price reports. We will also see Taiwan’s Dec trade data."
"In Europe, we will see Nov trade data in Germany and the UK, along with the more market-sensitive Nov industrial production reports in both nations."
"The US employment report of course dominates the calendar. Nov non-farm payrolls were so strong (321k) that there should be little market concern if Dec prints considerably weaker than consensus of 240k. A stronger reading however should stoke renewed USD buying. Consensus is for the (separately calculated) unemployment rate to tick down from 5.8% to 5.7%. Canada also releases Dec jobs data, with total jobs expected to rebound 15k (after -11k in Nov) and unemployment to hold at 6.6%."