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14 Dec 2015
USD/JPY bearish with volatility on positive Tankan
FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has been a volatile major within a 50 pip range in cautious markets. The data from Japan was solid in the form of the Tankan survey where large manufacturers beat expectations +12 vs +11 expected in the fourth quarter.
The capex was also very good, with large manufacturers looking to expenditure to grow operations by 15.5% vs 10.9% y/y in September. However, the outlook for smaller businesses was a big disappointment falling to-4 from -2.
For the week ahead, the FOMC will take the attention from here while it is still uncertain how much of a Fed hike has been priced in and what the reaction in the dollar will be on a Fed hike and lift off. Markets expect 25bp's while noting that Yellen has been very clear that rate hikes will be incremental and small. If there is a dovish hike and rhetoric, the dollar could come under pressure.
USD/JPY levels
Technically, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that a trend line drawn off the August low (~JPY116.20) and the mid-October low (~JPY118.10) is near JPY120 and rises about five pips a day. "The 61.8% retracement of the dollar's rally from that mid-October low is found near JPY120.25. A break of the JPY120 area would inflict serious technical damage, signaling a move at least back into the JPY116-JPY118 range, if not something more. At the same time, it is important to respect market conditions, especially the lack of liquidity in the money markets, including in forwards and swaps, which may amplify price movements."
The capex was also very good, with large manufacturers looking to expenditure to grow operations by 15.5% vs 10.9% y/y in September. However, the outlook for smaller businesses was a big disappointment falling to-4 from -2.
For the week ahead, the FOMC will take the attention from here while it is still uncertain how much of a Fed hike has been priced in and what the reaction in the dollar will be on a Fed hike and lift off. Markets expect 25bp's while noting that Yellen has been very clear that rate hikes will be incremental and small. If there is a dovish hike and rhetoric, the dollar could come under pressure.
USD/JPY levels
Technically, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that a trend line drawn off the August low (~JPY116.20) and the mid-October low (~JPY118.10) is near JPY120 and rises about five pips a day. "The 61.8% retracement of the dollar's rally from that mid-October low is found near JPY120.25. A break of the JPY120 area would inflict serious technical damage, signaling a move at least back into the JPY116-JPY118 range, if not something more. At the same time, it is important to respect market conditions, especially the lack of liquidity in the money markets, including in forwards and swaps, which may amplify price movements."
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