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18 Jan 2016
Oil specs: Further moves to record shorts - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy, summarizes the Commitment of Traders Report for the Week Ending January 12th, 2015, noting that Oil specs, particularly in the WTI markets, saw further moves to a record number short positions.
Key Quotes
"The gold spec community quickly closed another 10% of short positions and begun warming up to the long side once again, as a shaky equity market and global worries, led by China concerns, have added somewhat to the safe haven bid, while also capitalizing on the diminishing expectations of multiple US rate hikes this year."
"PGMs specs exhibited sharp moves on the short side, with palladium shorts retracing half their entire move lower from the all-time highs set back in the summer. With global demand worries front and center, negative Chinese equity market moves, and slowing manufacturing PMIs, the palladium story has been hit hard weaker demand expectations—interestingly, Chinese auto sales just posted another stellar month of growth, up 18.2% in December."
"Oil specs, particularly in the WTI markets, saw further moves to a record number short positions, which is not surprising with oil prices pushing to cycle lows, after US petroleum inventories continue to build strongly, Iranian oil is expected to return soon, and Chinese demand expectations have weakened—we are of the view that this spec short momentum could add to a brief $25/bbl downside, but will then add abruptly to the upside once the fundamentals turn later in the year."
Key Quotes
"The gold spec community quickly closed another 10% of short positions and begun warming up to the long side once again, as a shaky equity market and global worries, led by China concerns, have added somewhat to the safe haven bid, while also capitalizing on the diminishing expectations of multiple US rate hikes this year."
"PGMs specs exhibited sharp moves on the short side, with palladium shorts retracing half their entire move lower from the all-time highs set back in the summer. With global demand worries front and center, negative Chinese equity market moves, and slowing manufacturing PMIs, the palladium story has been hit hard weaker demand expectations—interestingly, Chinese auto sales just posted another stellar month of growth, up 18.2% in December."
"Oil specs, particularly in the WTI markets, saw further moves to a record number short positions, which is not surprising with oil prices pushing to cycle lows, after US petroleum inventories continue to build strongly, Iranian oil is expected to return soon, and Chinese demand expectations have weakened—we are of the view that this spec short momentum could add to a brief $25/bbl downside, but will then add abruptly to the upside once the fundamentals turn later in the year."