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EUR/USD drops to session low after EU retail sales, now eyeing NFP data

The EUR/USD pair failed to capitalize on its initial minor up-tick and turned negative after monthly retail sales number fell short of consensus estimates. 

According to the data released by Eurostat, Euro-zone retail sales for the month of April remained flat as compared to a decline of 0.5% in March and expected growth of 0.4%. On a y-o-y basis, sales recorded a growth of 1.4% vs the expected growth of 2.1%. Monthly and yearly readings for the month of March were also revised lower.

Earlier during the day, mixed services PMI prints from the Euro-zone also failed to provide any respite for the Euro bulls. Moreover, ECB’s warning of downside risk to its economic and inflation projections continued to keep the EUR/USD major suppressed.

Traders now keenly wait for the release of the non-farm payrolls number from the US with a special attention to average hourly earnings growth, which is likely to influence the Fed's monetary policy decision next week. 

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Technical levels to watch

The pair seems to have stuck within a near-term trading range between 1.1220-1.1100 band and thus becomes immediate resistance and support levels respectively. 

A convincing strength above 1.1220 level now seems to open room for an immediate up-move towards reclaiming 1.1300 handle and the move could further get extended towards its next major resistance near 1.1350-60 resistance area.

On the flip side, break below 1.1100 important confluence support would turn the pair vulnerable to further downside in the near-term, towards testing its next major support near 1.0950 region.

1 Week
Avg Forecast 1.1098
0.0%100.0%22.0%0-1001020304050607080901001100
  • 22% Bullish
  • 78% Bearish
  • 0% Sideways
Bias Bearish
1 Month
Avg Forecast 1.1119
100.0%81.0%50.0%045505560657075808590951001050
  • 50% Bullish
  • 31% Bearish
  • 19% Sideways
Bias Bullish
1 Quarter
Avg Forecast 1.1153
100.0%73.0%33.0%0304050607080901000
  • 33% Bullish
  • 40% Bearish
  • 27% Sideways
Bias Bearish

 

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