Fed to lift its interest rate target - BBH

Investors remain convinced that the Federal Reserve will lift its interest rate target when its meeting concludes on March 21 with new forecasts and a press conference, according to Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH.  

Key Quotes

“Recent disappointing data, especially average hourly earnings, and retail sales, coupled with a core CPI that has been stuck at 1.8% for three months has seen some investors come to accept our view that the Fed is unlikely to signal four hikes this year, even if some of the doves revise up their hikes from two to three.  The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker and several money center banks have revised their Q1 GDP estimate to below 2%.”

“The Dollar Index is taking a four-week advancing streak into the week ahead.  It is the longest advance since last October.  Yet it is not really rallying as much as consolidating the decline that began the year.  In fact, the Dollar Index remains slightly below where it finished last month.  The technical indicators collectively appear somewhat supportive,  but the 91.35-91.40 band seems to be blocking a run at 91.00., which is the key to any meaningful recovery.”