USD/TRY: Neutral to bearish, scope to 5.42 - Commerzbank

Analysts at Commerzbank, hold a bearish outlook for USD/TRY as long as it remains below the October high at 6.22. 

Key Quotes: 

“USD/TRY has eroded the 5.6972 mid-August low and in doing so suggests a top formation and pushes the August 6 high at 5.4209 to the fore. We are a little concerned that the Elliott wave count remains positive and would describe out stance as neutral to bearish.”

“Further, stronger support, comes in at the May and July highs at 4.9624/4.9233. Slightly ahead of here we have a double Fibonacci retracement at 5.06/5.03.”

“We will retain our bearish forecast while the currency pair remains below the current October high at 6.2282. Below it the three month resistance line can be seen at 6.0155 and above it the mid-September high at 6.5521.”