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21 Feb 2019
Recent comments from Fed officials on US economy and monetary policy
Cleveland Federal Reserve President and the non-voting member of the rate-setting FOMC Loretta Mester said on February 19:
- Fed funds rate may need to move “a bit higher” if the economy performs as she expects.
- The most likely scenario is that the economic growth will slow this year, job growth will slow, and inflation will stay near 2%.
- Fed is not far behind or ahead of curve and can gather information on the economy before adjusting rate policy.
- I would be comfortable slowing or stopping reinvestment of maturing securities this year.
- If I was to make the decision on my own, I would favor slowing reinvestment of Fed's maturing securities.
- My preference is for Fed to hold primarily treasuries and I would favor shorter term treasuries.
- The rate increase may be needed later this year.
- I do not think ending balance sheet trimming would have a material impact on the economy.
New York Fed President John Williams said on February 19 for Reuters:
- I am comfortable with the interest rates level now and I see no need to raise them again unless growth or inflation shifts to an unexpectedly higher gear.
- The Fed would continue trimming its bond portfolio well into next year.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President and the non-voting member of the rate-setting FOMC Mary Daly said on February 20:
- I see more headwinds, including slower global growth, uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions.
- There's nothing on the radar that says that the US is slipping into the recession.
- Impact of uncertainty is pretty substantial but it can slow the economy.
- We are very near a neutral level of rates.
- The US economy is restraining itself and faces headwinds, so Fed needs patience on rates.
- Patience on rates is needed until inflation is rising faster.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President and the non-voting member of the rate-setting FOMC James Bullard said on February 21 on CNBC:
Fed is in a good place today.
- I think rates are a bit tight right now and the December rate hike was a "step too far".
- I would like to see inflation numbers improve.
- Political factors not involved in FED decisions.
- Fed is likely near the end of interest rate increases and program to reduce bonds it holds on its balance sheet.
- Growth is slowing in China and it will continue to slow.
- China has a long term issue of an aging population.
- The probability of recession in the US has picked up because the yield curve has nearly inverted.
- The US economy is slowing although not terribly and it needs productivity growth.
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic and the non-voting members of the rate-setting FOMC said in Dublin on February 21:
- Fed is close to neutral policy rate right now.
- The US economy is pretty good, inflation is not much faster.
- It is imprudent to project policy path given the uncertainty.