India: Transitory uptick in inflation – ANZ

ANZ analysts note that India’s headline CPI rose to a 14-month high in September, sharper than even our non-conservative estimate.

Key Quotes

“The increase was driven by higher food inflation, while core inflation moderated for the second straight month.”

“Despite coming close to the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target range of 4%, we believe policy action and favourable monsoons will cap the upside to further increase in vegetable prices.”

“Today’s uptick will therefore be short-lived, which reinforces our call for the RBI to ease policy rates by 25bps at its policy meeting in December.”