Canada: Trade in goods likely weighed on growth in Q3 - NBF

Despite a reduction of the deficit, September’s merchandise trade report in Canada contained its fair share of bad news, according to analysts at National Bank of Canada.

Key quotes

"To begin with, two-way trade (exports + imports) fell no less than 1.5% m/m, more than compensating for the prior month’s 1.3% progression. To be fair, much of this deterioration stemmed from a decrease in the energy surplus, the latter caused in part by reduced activities at some U.S. refineries."

"Recall that China banned Canadian imports of the stuff back in March. Before that, about half of Canada’s canola exports went to the Middle Kingdom."

"Where exports are concerned, it seems trade tensions were at least partly responsible for the monthly drop. Indeed, shipments of farm, fishing and intermediate food products fell 7.3% in September as exports of canola plunged to their lowest level in six years."