US: Jobless claims to treble anything previously reported – TDS

Most recessions start with a fairly gradual rise in jobless claims, but this one looks quite different. Multiple states have indicated that filings ran at multiples of previous trends last week, economists at TD Securities inform.

Key quotes

“Our 2.5 million forecast for the total is more than triple anything previously reported. The all-time high was 695K, in 1982. The high in the 2008-09 recession was 665K.” 

“Real GDP will likely continue to show a fairly solid Q4 pace after this week's revision (TD 2.2%; consensus: 2.1%).” 

“The numbers will almost certainly change dramatically in 2020: We forecast a 3.0% rate of decline (q/q AR) in Q1, a 25.0% rate of decline in Q2, a 15.0% rate of increase in Q3 and 0.0% in Q4.”