USD/TRY Price Analysis: 5-day SMA caps recovery

• USD/TRY's bounce stalls at a bearish SMA hurdle. 
• The pair risks falling to key support at 7.4818.

USD/TRY jumped by 0.63% on Monday, ending a three-day losing streak. So far, however, the currency pair has struggled to extend Monday's recovery beyond the 5-day simple moving average (SMA) located at 7.6912. 

A continued failure to beat that downward-sloping SMA hurdle would reinforce the immediate bearish bias and open the doors to re-test of the 100-day SMA, currently at 7.4818. The 14-day relative strength index continues to report bearish conditions with a below-50 print. As such, the 5-day SMA hurdle is likely to prevail. 

The trendline rising from January and July lows is located near the 100-day SMA. As such, acceptance under that average would confirm an end of the 2020 bullish trend. On the higher side, the pair needs to cross the former support-turned-resistance at 7.7787 (Oct. 22 low) to invalidate the bearish bias. 

Daily chart

Trend: Bearish

Technical levels

Resistance: 7.7787 (Oct. 22 low), 7.8613 (50-day SMA)

Support: 7.5985 (Monday's low), 7.4818 (100-day SMA)